CSC Transition & Fertility Outcomes Model

What actually changes on the farm — cows lost, cows treated, cows back in calf — before any of it gets turned into a dollar figure.

Cow Start Complete — Done Once / Done Right

Farm inputs

Not every eligible cow gets dosed. This covers missed cows within the age groups you tick "Treat" for below — it doesn't touch untargeted groups.
Lawlor et al. 2024: 0% clinical MF in supplemented cows vs 13.3% control.
Sustained blood Ca 2.14 vs 1.98 mmol/L over 96h (Lawlor et al. 2024).
Age groupCowsClinical MF risk %Subclinical risk %Treat?
Total
Age-specific subclinical rates: Roberts & McDougall 2018 (NZ Vet J. 67:1-20). Heifers are defaulted to untreated — dosing 1st-calvers with a sustained-release bolus isn't typically recommended. Edit any cell or tick directly — nothing here gets silently rescaled.

1Transition period losses

What hypocalcaemia costs the herd in the first days after calving — before a single mating decision is made.

2Breeding gains

Cycling, submission and conception downstream of a smoother transition. Cycling and submission are leading indicators — the empty rate below is where they land financially.

The "With CSC" figures below are whole-herd averages, weighted by how much of the herd is actually treated — not the rate among treated cows alone. At partial coverage the herd-wide number will sit between baseline and the treated-cow rate.

3Production

Response expressed as a % lift on the herd's own average production, matching the spread actually seen across trials rather than a fixed L/day.

Estimated gain in treated cows — assumes each completes a full season at the selected % lift, with no allowance for a partial or declining response.

Summary

The headline outcomes above, together, before they're translated into dollars.

What this is worth — dollar translation (optional)click to expand
OutcomeQuantityValue per unitValue
Total benefit$0
Deaths, premature culling and empty cows are all valued at heifer-rearing cost, not open-market cow value — most farmers are already rearing replacements for their expected empty rate rather than buying in, so the real cost of an unplanned loss is the extra rearing spend it forces, not what a mature cow would fetch for sale. The $1,800 defaults are placeholders; use your own NZ rearing-cost figure if you have one. Premature culling and empty cows are two separate, sequential cuts — premature culling is cows that failed to recover from transition disease before mating even started, empty cows are a distinct later cut after mating for cows that didn't hold — so both carry their own rearing cost without double-counting each other. The empty-cow line also carries its own production-loss component, from the shortened season of an early dry-off — a different effect again from the per-cow yield lift in the Production line below. Retained placenta and metritis costs are direct treatment costs only, for the same double-counting reason culling and production are costed separately — a fully-loaded published cost-per-case figure would already have culling risk and lost production baked in. Subclinical hypocalcaemia is shown as an outcome above but not costed here for the same reason — its financial impact is mostly captured through retained placenta, metritis, culling and production, all of which are driven off it. First service conception and 6-week in-calf rate aren't costed here either, even though Pihama showed a real effect on them — that gain lands in next season's calving pattern and days in milk, not this season's numbers, so it's left out of this season's total below.
Programme cost
$0
Total benefit
$0
Net gain
$0
ROI
0 : 1
Defaults reflect Froger, Stiegeler & Lawlor 2026 (J. Vet. Anim. Sci.), Lawlor et al. 2024 (Anim. Vet. Sci. 12(6):154-160), Pihama and Hakatere trial data, and Roberts & McDougall 2018 age-specific risk. Every number above is editable — the model runs on your farm's assumptions, not a fixed marketing claim.